The Stock Market Blog: August 2019

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Citi discussing that today on Wednesday, the 17th and this is clearly a nagging problem for Deutsche Bank and the rest of the EU banks. And exactly what does it do then? It drives the type of behavior that led us into 2008 where in fact the banks can’t make money the old fashion way of printing it and then stealing it from everyone on the eye on the amount of money they create. They can not generate income the old-fashioned way, so now they’re heading to start continuing down this road of increasingly more risky projects.

Nothing could be further from the reality. The recognition of this is what’s now driving silver and gold higher this year and as this is constantly on the play out, it will drive both even higher the rest of this 12 months and into next. Mike Gleason: Staying on the topic of the Fed. People have been wondering why, if the U.S. FOMC is likely to start reducing interest rates when it gets back again together in a month or more. Possibly the pain in the bank sector is part of this answer. We realize the central banks real mandate is to defend private sector banks, it isn’t maintaining a stable money in fostering for full employment, the nonsense publicly stated.

But in addition to their commitment to preserving the profitability of banks, there is also plenty of evidence that the U.S. What do the thing is as the Fed’s motivation for lower rates, Craig? And where do you think the FOMC is headed over another year or two? And we were cooking along, more than 3% GDP, but then we started to fail in the third quarter. From the fourth quarter, a poor GDP and the first quarter of ’11 was negative as well thereby there’s your recession.

1,920. Well here we again are, right. We were told initially, even late last year there were heading to be four rate hikes this year. All of the Wall Street economists were echoing, parroting that from the Fed. BS of those particular government figures, but in the end the Fed knows their only hope to keep the place spinning is financial growth.

It’s surely got to keep the U.S. Well, anybody that’s ever-studied economics understands an inverted produce curve invariably leads to downturn. Now, you can just consider it directly as lower rates on the long end versus the brief end or some individuals take a look at other metrics. When compared to a month Is the three-month T Expenses below Fed money and could it be there to get more? Is that the basic thing that assures a downturn is arriving? Either way, all I understand is an inverted yield curve, where in fact the Fed funds, the short rate, is higher than say the 10-year note leads to recession every time and these fuzzy headed academics at the Fed know this.

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The Fed funds rate is actually quoted at 2.4%. The two-year U.S. Treasury notice is 1.85. The 10-yr U.S. Treasury be aware is 2.1. so simply just to get the yield curve to be flat, the Fed must cut 50 basis factors, lowering the Fed money to 190 versus 185 for just two and 210 for the ten. They owe us probably 75 to get it down to 165 with least have an optimistic slope again. That, Mike, is the reason why they’re talking about cutting rates.

All the other stuff, inflation, that’s all just home window dressing to attempt to mollify the masses and keep them confused and buying stocks. They want to cut the Fed money rate to simply reestablish a positively sloping yield curve. Help their banks for the same reasons that we talked about in the first question and then desire to keep carefully the economy growing.